內地經濟放慢、宏調面對考驗，對香港影響如何？

內地經濟放慢、宏調面對考驗，對香港影響如何？
Moderated Growth and Policy Shift in China and its Impact on Hong Kong

中銀香港發表研究報告，檢討中國內地當前的經濟形勢及對香港的影響。報告指出，內地出口及經濟增長放慢，通脹上升的形勢，令目前的宏觀調控政策面對新考驗。一方面出口與經濟增長已明顯放慢，如堅持緊縮銀根，經濟存在進一步下滑的風險；另一方面在通脤水準仍然較高時貿然放鬆銀根，將可能刺激物價進一步攀升，令通脹惡化。內地的宏觀調控如果能做到既防止經濟滑坡，又抑制通脹上升當然最好不過，惟兩者存在一定衝突，在實際操作中並不容易兼顧。

報告認為，在目前的環境下，內地面對的通脹問題比經濟增長放慢問題更為辣手，主要是內地仍有較大空間運用財政及匯率手段應對出口放慢問題，如果效果不理想，還可以適度推進大型基建項目上馬，因此，要維持較高的經濟增長率仍然有可能。但通貨膨脹是一個全球性問題。一般認為，這一輪的全球性通脹與食品及油價有關，但從貨幣的角度看，源頭還是在美國的貨幣政策。過去幾年，美國一直維持低利率及寬鬆貨幣政策，加上美元持續貶值，影響了全球範圍的流動性過剩。在經濟全球化時代，主要經濟貿易往來密切，通脤的傳導性增強，如果美國不大幅收緊貨幣供應量，中國作為全球第三大進出口貿易大國亦難以靠自身力量控制通脹。

報告預計，儘管內地會盡量保護出口、就業與經濟增長，但穩定物價仍然是首要任務，在通脹率回落至正常水準之前，如2-3%，緊縮貨幣政策應不會發生方向性調整。

在內地經濟放慢對香港的影響方面，報告認為，受到內地出口放慢的影響，香港出口增長將會減速，惟港元持續貶值有利於吸引外來購買力流入，帶旺旅遊及零售業，可部分抵銷此影響；而負利率、港元弱勢以及供應量較少的因素則有利於房地產市場穩定。預計，下半年香港經濟仍可以在複雜的國際、國內經濟形勢下維持一定的增長動力，呈現較高通脹 ( 指通脹率高於2% )、較高增長 ( 指經濟增長高於趨勢增長率 ) 的特點，2008年的經濟增長率將從2007年的6.3%下降至5%，整體通脹率將從2007年的2%上升至約4%，基本通脹率則從2.8%上升至6%。但如果歐美經濟陷入深度衰退，內地通脹持續高企，香港經濟便可能進入高通脹、低增長，甚至陷入滯脹困局。

報告指出，廣東推動產業轉型對珠三角製造業的影響已逐漸浮現。港資企業雖然對內地的產業轉型政策早已知悉及有所準備，但仍然有相當數量的中小型企業，甚至大型企業難以應對內部及外部經營環境的轉變，而陷入困境。珠三角一些港資企業，或許運營模式已不配合該地區產業轉型需要，但這些企業吸納了大量就業人口，並擁有頗穩固的海外市場網絡，如果廣東方面能夠積極幫助他們就地轉型或者就近遷移，尤其是幫助他們打造自主品牌，提升附加值，對於強化廣東的本土經濟，鞏固出口地位及就業基礎仍具有戰略價值。

報告還分析了內地宏觀調控對香港銀行體系資金流向的影響，認為今年以來，香港銀行體系的港幣存款收縮可能有港元負利率幅度拉擴及港元匯率隨美元貶值，尤其是對人民幣貶值的因素；而年內銀行業放款，尤其是外幣放款大幅飆升，則可能與內地企業在內地收緊信貸後轉向香港尋求融資有關。報告預期，下半年內地仍會堅持緊縮政策基調，香港的境外融資需求仍然殷切，惟行業風險在增加，而香港本地銀行的貸存比率普遍已達較高水平，預計本地銀行貸款業務的增長可能不及上半年；另外，在資金較緊缺的環境下，沉寂多年的吸存工具，如存款證，有可能重新活躍。

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The latest Economic Review by the Bank of China (Hong Kong) examines the economic outlook of the Mainland of China and its impact on Hong Kong. Mainland regulators are on horns of dilemma amid rising inflationary pressure and stagnant economic growth. Growth in export and overall economy have tumbled noticeably in recent months, over-tightening monetary policy could push economy over the edge. On the other hand, inflation bas stayed stubbornly high in spite of the fall in output, credit expansion may threat to aggravate inflation. Indeed, the challenges confronting the central bankers as they try to get the economy on track and keep inflation in check at the same time would not be easily overcome.

The article points out that rapid and uncontrolled inflation has always been blamed as the root cause of social instability, fighting inflation is still of higher priority. Slower pace of currency appreciation and expansive fiscal policy can help cushion the impacts from slowdown in external trade. Post-quake reconstruction will give an additional impetus. In view of those factors, the Mainland economy is still expected to grow on solid footing in 2008. One must stay alert that heavy prices for foodstuff and commodities underlie high inflation in all regions of the world. In particular, soaring
food and oil prices around the world has its roots in lax monetary policy of the US. Excessive liquidity has been generated amid the era of cheap credit and prolonged period of dollar's downward spiral. More worrisome, globalization has accelerated the transmission of anticipated inflation across different countries. If the Fed is reluctant to reverse its lax monetary policy, China, the world's third largest trading power, could find it very difficult to solve the problem on his own.

As inflation remains a major concern at this juncture, the article reiterates the monetary tightening stance of Chinese policymakers is not expected to change dramatically before inflation return to a moderate level (2-3%), despite more exporter-friendly measures may be adopted in the second half.

Wi1h regard to its impact on Hong Kong, albeit exporters have to withstand the strong headwind coming west, the softening HKD can bolster the expansion of tourism and retail industry, and hence help to buffer the impact of a gloomy picture on external trade front. The outlook of real estate market remains intact on the back of negative real interest rate, weakening HKD and limited housing supply. In the meantime, both the Mainland and Hong Kong are expected to maintain steady growth momentum in spite of global slowdown and financial turmoil characterized by high
inflation (inflation rise above 2%) and solid economic growth (above trend growth for GDP). We decide to maintain the full year forecast of Hong Kong's real GDP growth at 5 percent, down from 6.3 percent in 2007. As for inflation, it should hike from 2 percent in 2007 to around 4 percent this year. The underlying inflation rate is expected to rise from 2.8 percent to 6 percent. But should western nations head into a deep recession and inflation remains high in the Mainland, Hong Kong will suffer from the fire and ice of high inflation and low growth, and may end up with stagflation at worst.

The impact of industry amalgamation and transformation in the Pearl River Delta has surfaced gradually. Though manufacturers should be well-informed where and how such transformations might be accomplished, a substantial number of SMEs and even conglomerates are facing trouble and going bankrupt. Yet, Hong Kong enterprises parked in Guangdong have so far been well integrated into the global supply chain and established a solid linkage with overseas markets. Policymakers can make use of their advantages to expedite the pace of restructuring of those enterprises, or help manufacturers to relocate to eastern, western and mountainous regions, thereby maintaining price competitiveness. Over the long term, restructuring of Hong Kong enterprises will not only increase the business opportunities for Hong Kong firms, but will also facilitate the economic upgrade process in Guangdong and boost competitiveness of the Great PRD region as a whole.

Finally, the report notices a series of macro-control measures by the Mainland authorities has changed the capital environment in Hong Kong. The amount of deposit in local banking system has reversed its uptrend and posted modest decline this year, stemmed from widening negative real interest rate and a weakening HKD. On the contrary, loans by financial institutions enter an uptrend, thanks to tightened credit in the Mainland. As we stand by our call for that monetary policy will have to remain tight in the coming months, demand for offshore loan in Hong Kong is expected to remain robust in the second half year. However, the loan-to-deposit ratio for different local lenders has almost reached the upper limit, without the back of renewal capital inflow from abroad, total loan and advances shall grow at a moderated pace in the second half. In addition, since interbank interest rates are still edging up, there will be a greater chance for banks to promote different products like Certificate of Deposits, in order to expand their deposit taking means.

The Economic Review is prepared by the Economics & Strategic Planning Department of the Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited. The viewpoints in the Economic Review do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited.
Source: Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd.