美元貶值趨勢及崩潰風險

美元貶值趨勢及崩潰風險

中銀香港發表專題研究報告,探討美元貶值趨勢及美元對人民幣匯率問題。報告指出,07年美元跌勢加劇,美匯指數跌幅一度達到13%,全年則下跌10%。從長週期看,美元這一輪跌勢始於2002年3月份,在過去六年裏,美元除了在05年錄得溫和反彈之外,其餘年份均呈不同幅度的下跌,美匯指數的累積跌幅達到34%,其中美元對歐元跌幅39%,兌英鎊跌幅27%,兌日元跌幅14%,對人民幣跌幅12%。

美元在07年內跌勢加劇,主要與次級債危機蔓延及擴散有關係,事件除直接打擊投資者對美國信用體系及美元資產的信心外,亦迫使美聯儲冒著刺激通脹抬頭的風險而減息。

美元積弱的根源則在於美國現行貨幣發行制度欠缺約束。自從美元與黃金掛鈎制度於1971年被當時的尼克松政府單方面取消後,美元貨幣發行已沒有硬約束,常常成為美國執政當局用來解決國內財政入不敷出,支付龐大貿易赤字與軍費開支的工具。

2002-2006年間,美國累計財政赤字達15,146億美元,貿易赤字達到3.99萬億美元,貿赤佔本地生產總值比重從2001年的3.8%上升至06年的6.2%,令美元供應泛濫,匯率貶值成為必然。截至07年底,美元兌主要貨幣匯率指數跌至73.27點,只有1971年美元與黃金脫鈎時的三分之一,其中,美元兌日元從1971年的1美元兌360日元跌至今年底的兌111.7日元,貶值了69%;兌歐元則從1999年歐元面世時的1歐元兌1.18美元跌至兌1.4603美元,累積跌幅為19%。如果以2000年10月26日歐元兌美元匯率0.8228的低位計算,美元在過去大約7年間兌歐元的貶值幅度達44%。

美元持續貶值給全球經濟與金融市場帶來了廣泛影響。石油出口國、中國及日本等經濟體,由於擁有大量美元儲備資產,正承受著美元貶值帶來的匯率風險;而實行與美元掛鈎匯率制度的經濟體,如香港及中東一些石油輸出國的物價與資產價格的穩定也受困擾,目前正面對輸入通脹壓力。

瞻望前景,從美元現行貨幣供應機制、美國的經濟形勢、財政與貿易狀況、匯率政策傾向以及美元資產的投資價值等基本因素看,美元仍難以扭轉目前的弱勢;而歐元堅挺的勢頭,有利於其增強國際儲備與結算功能,將進一步分流美元的角色。最近,伊朗調整以美元為石油標價與結算的制度、科威特調整與美元掛鈎的匯率制度,而近幾年國際市場選擇以歐元發債的數量壓倒了美元,這些均對美元的國際地位與需求構成一定影響,並且令市場擔心會否產生骨牌效應。

此外,迄今為止,美國政府並未對美元弱勢進行干預,反面為穩定經濟而減息,反映了在支持美元與支持經濟之間,美國選擇了後者,現階段美元弱勢問題並非在美國經濟與貨幣政策的首要考慮位置。

但美元的累計跌幅已經不小,過度貶值並不符合各方利益及美國的長遠利益:西歐、日本以及中國等出口大國及外匯儲備大國的儲備資產及出口競爭力已因美元大幅貶值而削減,並不願意看到美元持續貶值;從鞏固國際儲備與結算貨幣地位的長遠利益出發,美國亦不能過於放縱美元貶值,預計美元跌勢不至於發展到失控或崩潰的局面。未來,美元走勢有較大機會趨向個別發展,對歐元、英鎊、日元等主要貨幣穩中偏軟,甚至可能短暫反彈;但美元兌人民幣的貶值遠未結束,將是一個長期的過程。

美元兌人民幣匯率問題已成為中美兩國發展全面經貿關係的戰略核心環節,已非主要由經濟因素決定,預計未來,美國及歐盟一直會以貿易逆差為理由迫人民幣升值。從上個世紀八十年代中期,美國曾經以同樣借口壓迫日元兌美元匯率升值十年,累計升幅達到203%的經驗看,有理由相信,美國正在針對人民幣進行一場類似20年前美元兌日元那樣的戰略性匯率貶值將是一個漫長的歷程。

註:《中銀經濟月刊》由中國銀行(香港)有限公司發展規劃部撰寫和主編,所持觀點不一定代表中國銀行(香港)有限公司意見。

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Analysis of the Dollar Downtrend and the Dollar Crisis

Bank of China Economic Review in January, 2008 examines the protracted dollar downtrend and discusses specificially about the RMB/US dollar exchange rate issue.
The report pointed out that the USD has weakened dramatically last year, with USD index dropped 13% at most, before ending down 10% by the end of 2007. The USD index has been on the downward trend and marked a decline of 34% since March 2002, albeit a mild rebound registered in 2005. The dollar has slipped 39% against the euro, 27% against the British bound, 14% against the Japanese yen and 12% against the RMB. USD denominated assets have been sold off sharply last year, on concerns the subprime woes would cripple through the broader economy and hurt the investors' confidence toward the U.S. credit rating system. The dollar extended the downtrend as uncertainties about the economy and financial markets give the Federal Reserve more reasons to lower interest rates in spite of the alarming inflation risk.

Indeed, the right of the U.S. to issue paper money, without any promise of redemption in either gold or silver metal, is blamed as the root cause of the USD's downward spiral. Since U.S. President Richard Nixon ended trading of gold at the fixed price of USD35/ounce at 1971, fiat money was regarded as the cure-all for the staggering U.S. trade and fiscal deficits. The cumulative fiscal deficits of the U.S. government hit USD 1.51 billions, whilst trade deficit surged to USD 3.99 trillions during 2002-2006. Trade deficit/GDP ratio increased to 6.2% in 2006, almost a double from 3.8% in 2001. The greenback weakened further as a result of a flood of dollar in the markets. The Nominal Major Currencies Dollar Index dropped to 73.27 by the end of 2007, which was only a third of the value of dollar at the time when the U.S. decided to suspend the gold convertibility. The dollar fell 69% against the yen, from 360 to 111.7 yen during the same period of time. It shed 19% against the euro since its inception at 1999, from 1.18 to 1.4603. The dollar dropped 44% against the euro, if compared with the euro's low at 0.8228 recorded on 26 October 2000.

The article also stated that depreciation of the USD could bring profound impacts on global markets. Oil producing countries, China, Japan and other countries which hold enormous amount of U.S. dollar reserves are suffering from growing currency risk stemmed from the weakening USD. At the same time, economies having adopted the dollar-pegged exchange rate regime like Hong Kong and several oil exporting countries in Middle East are under pressure of imported price inflation.

According to the note's analysis, the USD is expected to extend its downtrend in view of the current note-issue mechanism, gloomy economic outlook in the U.S., persistent fiscal and trade deficits, less attractive investment value of U.S. denominated assets and exchange rate policy bias. The euro's solid performance further strengthened its role as a major reserve currency and unit of account, diluting the predominated position of the dollar in FX market. Furthermore, concerns about the abandonment of dollar pricing for oil in Iran, gulf dollar depeg threat led by Kuwait and emergence of euro denominated bonds could magnify the dollar's descent.

In addition. the rare FX intervention to prop up the dollar in recent years has demonstrated that the week dollar issue is not a priority among the US economic polices.

Nevertheless, the article stresses that the decline of the dollar during the past few years was already noticeable, too rapid depreciation of the greenback would be destabilizing among different economies across the world. For Western Europe, Japan,China and other export giants, continued depreciation of the greenback has been curtailing their export competitiveness, while also hurting the value of their existing reserve holdings. On the other hand, Washington has reiterated the determination to maintain the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. After all, a dollar crisis is not expected to emerge though the bearish forecast remains. The decline of the dollar against the euro, British bound and Japanese yen are expected to remain intact, while the structura1 downtrend against the RMB would be protracted.

Lastly, the article points out that the RMB/USD exchange rate issue has crucial strategic implications for overall Sino-U.S. economic relationship, and hence does not simply mirror the difference of economic fundamentals. The U.S. and EU would probably bring additional pressure for RMB appreciation in face of the ballooning trade deficit. The yen appreciated 203% against the USD in a decade after the Plaza Accord in mid-1980. If history is any guide, the US government would like to see the RMB trend higher in a more aggressive fashion.

Remark: The Economic Review is prepared by the Economics & Strategic Planning Department of the Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited. The viewpoints in the Economic Review do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited.